House prices up 0.1%
House prices in 2011 Quarter 3 (July to September) were 0.1% higher than in the previous quarter, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index. This was the first quarterly rise since 2010 Quarter 1 (0.6%).
On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 0.5% in September. There has been a very mixed pattern of monthly price movements so far this year with four monthly rises, four falls and one month when prices were unchanged.
The average UK house price in September was 1.0% lower than in December 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, at £161,132.
On an annual basis, prices in September were 2.3% lower as measured by the average for the three months to September against the same period a year earlier. The annual rate is slightly lower than in August (-2.6%) and continues the improvement seen since May when prices were 4.2% lower annually.
Some signs of a slight pick-up in housing activity. Property sales have been broadly unchanged during 2011 to date, remaining within a narrow range around 70,000 per month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to HMRC figures. The industry-wide number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase - a leading indicator of completed house sales - increased for the fourth consecutive month in August, to 52,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest Bank of England figures. This was the highest since December 2009.
Higher employment and low mortgage rates are likely to have been important factors supporting the market. The number of people in employment in the three months to July was 24,000 higher than a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the ONS. Typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26% in 2011 Quarter 3. This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.
Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: "House prices in Quarter 3 (July to September) were slightly higher than in Quarter 2 (April to June). The 0.1% increase between the two quarters was the first quarterly rise since Quarter 1 2010.
"The more volatile monthly figures showed a 0.5% decline in prices in September. This continued the mixed monthly picture experienced so far this year with four rises, four falls and one no change since January. This mixed pattern is consistent with a market where prices are lacking genuine direction.
"Greater uncertainty about economic and personal financial circumstances, together with pressure on householders' finances from weak earnings growth, higher inflation and increases in taxes, are likely to be constraining housing demand. Despite these pressures, low interest rates and a rise in employment over the past year, have been supporting the market, resulting in broad stability in both prices and activity. We expect little change over the remainder of this year."