Is this the beginning of the end of the traditional ski holiday?

In less than 25 years global warming could spell the beginning of the end for the annual ski and winter sports holiday that millions of Britons enjoy each year, according to a new report by Halifax Travel Insurance.

Reduced snowfall and an increase in extreme weather conditions in alpine regions, such as avalanches and landslides, will drastically reduce the number of winter sports resorts and significantly increase the cost of visiting them. The report produced for Halifax Travel Insurance by Bill McGuire, Professor of Geohazards and Director of the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, will make worrying reading for winter sports enthusiasts and businesses involved in the global winter sports industry.

The Alps

According to the report, in just 13 years the European Alps could see a 30% reduction in the total amount of snow as a result of global warming, rising to a 50% reduction by the 2050s. This would destroy the viability of world famous skiing resorts such as Kitzbühel. Two in every five (40%) alpine ski resorts could face economic hardship or bankruptcy in less than twenty five years. The report also reveals the snowline in the Alps could rise by as much as 300m by 2030, leaving just 60% of resorts with reliable good skiing. The rising snowline will be compounded by snows arriving later, contracting the length of the ski season. Below around 1,200 metres winter snow cover is unlikely to be continuous.

North America

Resorts such as Whistler in Canada, voted the world’s best ski resort in 2006, with a base station at just 675 metres above sea level could find itself redundant as a winter sports destination by 2030. However, North American resorts at high altitudes could benefit from the Alps demise as a premier skiing destination. Most American Rocky Mountain resorts have very high base-stations and are less likely than European resorts to be affected by elevated snow lines. Resorts such as Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen, Lake Tahoe, Jackson Hole and Mammoth in the United States could find Europeans flocking to their slopes as the global climate changes.

Rising costs

The price of winter sports holidays is set to increase exponentially by 2030 as the number of resorts able to guarantee good snow conditions shrinks dramatically. It is anticipated resorts at high altitudes will introduce quota systems to restrict the number of visitors as demand for snow-sure pistes increases exponentially. Quotas will drive up prices of holidays and ski passes. Resorts will need to invest additional sums in piste-bashing and snow-making machines to combat adverse weather conditions. Winter sports such as skiing, which have become increasingly mass market in the last decade, could once again return to an elitist hobby.

David Rochester, Head of Pricing at Halifax Travel Insurance, commented: “British winter sports enthusiasts face an uncertain future if global temperatures continue to rise. The availability and accessibility of winter resorts is likely to decrease markedly as the snowline rises. In less than twenty-five years, winter package holidays and chalet breaks may be regarded as expensive luxuries. Contemporary travel insurance pricing models for winter sports holidays will have to be revised as the risk to participants’ increases.

Bill McGuire, Professor of Geohazards and Director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, commented: “Increasing global temperatures by 2030 could have a devastating impact on the winter holiday industry. Those lucky enough to afford skiing in the restricted winter resort environments of 2030 will face increased risk from severe weather phenomena and unpredictable conditions. Unless urgent action is taken to combat the effects of climate change, the family skiing holiday could be consigned to the annals of history in less than a quarter of a century.”

An even more extreme sport

McGuire’s report goes on to caution winter sports enthusiasts that they face an increased risk from whiteouts and avalanches in future as unpredictable huge ‘dumps’ of snow can be expected, despite overall snow cover decreasing. A rise in the number of rock falls, landslides and mudflows is inevitable as temperatures in alpine regions rise, with the risk of entire mountain sides collapsing, potentially burying alpine villages and ski resorts under millions of tons of rock within minutes. Rising temperatures could melt the permanently frozen soil and rock that keeps many mountain sides in upland areas from disintegrating. Since the 1970s the temperature in the Alps has increased by two degrees, starting to melt the permafrost that binds otherwise unstable rock masses together.

Tighter restrictions

It is probable tighter restrictions will be introduced on transport to alpine resorts by 2030 to try and protect the local environment from pollution. British firms located in the UK selling winter sports clothing and equipment may also find their businesses affected as demand contracts from decreased winter holiday opportunities.

Country focus:

The French Alps: The report reveals the French Alps could experience a 10-15 percent reduction in the duration of winter snow. The resorts most likely to be affected by changing weather conditions will be those located at low altitudes, such as Flaine and Morzine, and Cauterets in the Pyrennes. Local, low-lying resorts, such as those in the Jura and Massif Central may also become unsustainable.

Resorts with access to glacier skiing and located at high altitudes are least likely to be affected by global warming, such as Val Thorens, Tignes, and Chamonix. Other resorts that will be less affected due to their altitudes include Meribel, La Plagne, Alpe d’Huez, Les Deux Alpes, Val d’Isere, and the higher parts of Courchevel resort.

The Italian Dolomites: Half of the winter sports villages in Italy are below 1,300 metres and by 2030 will undoubtedly suffer badly as a result of poorer snow conditions. In Cortina d’Ampezzo and Canazei, the snow may prove less reliable at lower levels, especially late in the season. In the Dolomites, Madonna de Campiglio and Selva are likely to fare best, as their base stations are above 1,500 metres.

The Austrian Alps: Austria has many well-known resorts, especially in Central and Eastern parts of the country, that are located at very low altitudes, and whose medium to long-term viability, in the face of reduced snow, must be questioned. Most notable among them is the world-famous resort of Kitzbühel, which is located just 800 metres above sea level. Others include Seefeld, Igls, Mayrhofen, Niederau, Alpbach, Ellmau, Soll, Saalbach and Zell am See. Those that will fare better due to their higher altitudes include St. Anton, Lech, Zurs, Ischgl, Obergurgl, Kühtai and Obertauern.

Eastern Europe: Like Austria, many resorts in Eastern Europe are very low lying and likely to become unviable in the medium-to long-term for traditional winter sports, such as skiing, snowboarding and sledging. These include Kranjska Gora in Slovenia and Poiana Brasov in

Romania. In Bulgaria, Bansko will struggle to maintain decent skiing runs, while low-level snow in the Bulgarian resort of Borovets is likely to be unreliable. Pamporova is likely to fare best with a base-station at an altitude of more than 1,600 metres.

Andorra (Pyrenees): Most resorts in Andorra are fairly high, with the principal centres of Arinsal, Pas de la Casa, and Soldeu all with base stations above 1,500 metres or so. By 2030, these should be relatively unaffected by rising snow lines, but the shorter season will have an impact on their profitability.

North America: The world’s best ski resort Whistler could have severe problems by 2030. Located in British Columbia, Canada, the resort has a base station at just 675 metres above sea level. The resort could suffer severely as snow lines rise and the season contracts. Whistler’s fate is ironic given that the resort takes environmental concerns extremely seriously with the village entirely pedestrianised.

Most American Rocky Mountain resorts have very high base-stations and are less likely than European resorts to be affected by elevated snow lines. Resorts such as Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen, Lake Tahoe, Jackson Hole, Snowboard and Mammoth in the US will probably continue to do reasonably well as the climate changes. The more continental of the Canadian resorts such as Banff and Lake Louise will also survive, but with the skiing season significantly reduced. The lower New England resorts in the US will have problems due to their relatively low altitude.