China to claim global export crown from United States by 2015

By 2015 China will overtake the US and Germany to become the largest exporting nation in the world, indicates latest research by the Alliance Trust Research Centre. At present the US is the largest exporter, accounting for almost 10% of total world exports.

China is currently the third largest exporter of goods and services in the world, and is destined to become the largest ‘goods’ exporter several years before becoming the largest exporter in total. The Alliance Trust Research Centre model predicts China will overtake Germany to move into second place in 2013, but will not beat the US to become the world’s largest exporter until 2015.

Top 10 exporters in 2005 by value (US$bn)

Shona Dobbie at The Alliance Trust Research Centre comments: “We expect China to emerge as the largest exporting nation in the world by 2015, by which time it will have overtaken both Germany and the US. However, this could occur much sooner if the current strong rate of Chinese export growth is maintained for the rest of the decade. We expect China to become the largest exporter of goods alone by 2012.”

According to the Alliance Research Centre’s report, if China’s current rate of growth is projected in the future, China could become the world’s largest exporter by 2009. However, pressure from the US in particular for a sharp appreciation of the Chinese Yuan could well prove detrimental to Chinese exports, and increased protectionism is likely to slow China’s progress to becoming the world’s top exporter. Emerging economies such as Vietnam, who are following in China’s footsteps by producing goods cheaply due to low input costs, could also put a brake on China’s ascendance to the global export top spot.

China’s exports have increased significantly in recent years, and grew by almost 28% in 2005, partly due to lower wages and an undervalued currency. In 2005, China overtook Japan to become the third largest exporter in the world, with a 7% of global exports, of which a massive 91% are merchandise related and over 90% are manufactured products. China was also the largest clothing exporter in the world in 2005, accounting for 27% of world clothing exports.

Projected Exports 2005 – 2017 (US$bn)

In 2005 China was also the third largest importing nation in the world, due to its expansion and development, which has benefited many other countries. China’s demand for imports is extremely important for the rest of Asia, and in 2005, imports from Asia of merchandise goods accounted for 64% of total Chinese imports.