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2009 marks the year of the Ox, or could that be the year of the Bull?

21st January 2009 Print
26th January marks the new Chinese year of the Ox, and investors around the world will be hoping that after one of the worst years in stock market history, this will be a year of changed fortunes - the year of the Bull.

The year of the Ox is a conservative year, one of traditions and values and the Chinese believe that it is not a year to be outrageous, but to be slow and steady. The Ox is supposed to bring stability and growth where patience and diligence pays off. It also symbolises harvest - to reap what we have sown and to take care of business. Investors will hope that the Year of the Ox is true to form, setting the economy on the path to gradual but lasting recovery.

In 2008, the world, as measured by the MSCI World Index, fell 42.1% but China fell more, down 51.9%. China's steep falls have demonstrated that even a high growth economy is vulnerable to a buckling of global demand. Despite attempts to shift the Chinese economy away from relying on exports to drive growth, the current global crisis caught China unawares and clearly showed that no one market is exempt from dramatic global trends.

Like other banks around the world, the Bank of China cut interest rates no fewer than five times and by 2% towards the end of 2008 to bolster demand. However, while other banks around the globe stopped lending, Chinese banks actually lent after the rates fell and were rewarded with a loan growth increase of 15.4% year-on year.

Whilst for China, the Year of the Ox may not be the smooth ride investors are hoping for after the recent market volatility, investors should feel confident that the government has shown a determination to fix the problem and get the economy back on track. In November, a RMB 4 trillion ($586 billion) spending package on infrastructure and programs was announced, creating jobs and supporting industries. The Chinese government has already stated that if required, they will release another package to help stimulate the economy.

Martha Wang, Manger of Fidelity China Focus Fund, comments: "2008 was an eventful year for China and we had the eyes of the world upon us. We had the major snow storm in early 2008 and the tragic earth quake in Sichuan. We also had the spectacular which was the Olympic Games. While the economy and market at first seemed sheltered from the credit crisis unfolding in the West, October saw signs that we would not remain immune as figures pointed to negative growth in exports & imports, slowed growth in retail sales and negative power consumption growth.

"Given the pace of the economic slowdown, the Chinese government has announced a series of economic stimulus policies. While the objectives are clear, whether the landing of the economy is going to be a hard or soft one remains uncertain. Earnings are also likely to see further downgrades over the near term. However, although the economic cycle is likely to drive the Chinese stock market in the short run, the country's fundamental growth dynamics remain sound and fiscal and trade position are healthy. Furthermore, opportunities are emerging as valuations become attractive.

"Within the fund I am investing in a number of companies that are well positioned to benefit from the recent stimulus measures implemented by the government - in particular within the property and infrastructure space. The overall positioning of the fund, however, continues to be focused on key growth dynamics such as rising middle class consumption and life style changes."