Caution is the 2009 watchword for Gartmore's Lanning

The overarching theme for 2009 is caution, according to Tony Lanning, the head of MultiManager at Gartmore, although "the outlook could improve in certain markets, notably in the US, and later in the year."

Tony recently shared his assessment of markets with an audience of UK intermediaries at the annual Joint Investment Forum (JIF), a series of educational events presented by four asset managers, including Gartmore.

The US economy, having gone into recession in December 2007, should be the first out, in Tony's view. "The Federal Reserve has been very aggressive with monetary policy and is now using less conventional means to pump money into the economy." In contrast to the beleaguered UK economy (bankruptcies and unemployment on the rise), the US economy is diversified and less reliant on the financial-services industry. Plus, there is the fiscal stimulus package of the new Obama administration - this package could exceed $1 trillion. Many high-quality companies are cheap - these are typically global businesses, noted for their innovation and free cash flow. "There remains potential for negative surprises, so our guarded optimism is tempered by caution."

Tony is also positive on Japan, which he judges to be a relative safe haven and virtually unscathed by the credit crunch. Although the strong yen is creating difficulties for large-cap exporters, there are interesting opportunities among domestic companies targeting consumers. Despite Japan's economic difficulties, Japanese consumers have proved somewhat resilient, he noted.