German losses play central role in European new car sales
Europe’s new car market continues to be a place of marked contrasts, with certain brands and markets growing sales and others not, as revealed by the latest monthly analysis from the world’s leading provider of automotive intelligence, JATO Dynamics.
European sales have fallen again in June (down 6.5% vs. June 2009), dragging down the overall YtD figure to just 1.1% above the same period last year.
The continued weakness in German and Italian new car markets (down 32.3% and 19.1%, respectively) is the main contributory factor to lower sales volumes, which is also affected by the lack of strong Central and Eastern Europe economies.
This is affecting some of the major brands – including Fiat, Ford and Volkswagen – that traditionally sell well to German and Italian buyers.
In France and UK, by contrast, things look better: sales figures are in the black (up 2.3% and 10.8%, respectively), helping certain brands whose sales are based on these markets, to show more positive sales figures.
However, as David Di Girolamo, Head of JATO Consult cautions, this should not be taken at face value: “It is certainly true that demand is weak today in Germany, but direct comparisons to June 2009 should bear in mind that Germany’s scrappage scheme was active in this period, driving high sales, whereas the UK scheme had only just begun and in June 2009 this market was still relatively depressed.”
Brand Performance
One brand that has seen a net benefit over the past year is Renault. In June 2009, Renault was fifth in the new car sales YtD; it is now second and just 196,694 behind Volkswagen, with its Clio and Mégane both up again in June.
Elsewhere, new models have offered the key growth opportunities. Opel/Vauxhall Astra is performing strongly in many European markets, pushing the brand to third in overall sales, while the increased popularity of Volkswagen’s new Polo is lifting the German brand’s fortunes outside its scrappage-hit home market.
Both Ford and Volkswagen are showing declines in sales, in part affected by the German market downturn, which followed a 35.1% decline in May, with a 32.3% drop in June, vs. the same periods, 2009.
Similarly, Fiat is suffering from the Italian market’s weakness. While it retains the top three selling models in Italy for June, each recorded a drop in sales, vs. 2009.
Model Performance
Opel/Vauxhall’s performance is down to two key models – Corsa and Astra – the latter of which was recently relaunched. Both were particularly popular in the UK during June (sales up 22.2% and 85.9%, respectively) and have consequently taken second and fourth place overall in sales.
The other big model recently relaunched was the Volkswagen Polo (overall June 2010 sales up 72.3%), whose freshness has afforded it a far greater popularity than its predecessor attracted in the same period in 2009.
Renault’s refreshed Clio and Mégane continue to show improving sales, while the Ford Focus and Fiat Panda have dropped out of Europe’s top ten selling models.
National Trends
Germany’s severe post-scrappage decline has not yet affected its position as the biggest market in Western Europe, but it is second only to Greece (down 40%) in the weakening of new car demand.
Concludes David Di Girolamo: “The balance of new car sales has not shifted yet. However, if current trends continue and any of the other major markets gain momentum, we may yet see Germany lose its title as the largest new car market in Europe.”