Competitive residual value forecast for Nissan Leaf

CAP has announced the first forecast residual values for an all-electric vehicle with a prediction that the Nissan Leaf will retain 40% of its pre-subsidy list price at 3 years and 30,000 miles.

With a government grant of up to £5000, designed to encourage take-up of initially expensive electric vehicles, along with zero carbon tax advantages, the Nissan Leaf will prove a financially competitive choice for forward-thinking fleets.

Despite widespread industry scepticism about future EV battery capacities and the limited driving range they offer even when new, CAP believes there will be a significant future appetite in the used market for the Leaf.

CAP’s 40% forecast is based on 3 years and 30,000 miles rather than the traditional fleet benchmark of 3 years and 60,000 miles in recognition that the Leaf will be operated in a different way than standard vehicles.

The forecast is also an important milestone for electric vehicles in the UK business market following disagreements within the industry over suitable financing methods and debate over whether the battery should be leased separately or owned as part of the vehicle.

CAP has maintained its position of only forecasting future residual values where the battery is legally under the same title as the vehicle. The company has taken this view due to the complexities of alternative leasing models and its view that the contract hire sector is currently unable to accommodate such alternatives.

Mark Norman of CAP said: “Although the future residual value of an electric vehicle is only a small part of the story, this forecast remains a significant moment in the industry. The figure of 40% reflects our belief that the current widespread skepticism in some areas fails to recognise that there will be a market for the Leaf and similar vehicles among consumers, especially those who wish to wear their green credentials openly.”