BCA Pulse confirms exceptional demand

New data from BCA’s interim Pulse report provides further evidence of the buoyant used van marketplace. Average monthly values were at record levels from March to May, but the underlying trend suggests a slight softening in values is underway.

BCA's UK Business Development Manager - Commercial Vehicles Duncan Ward comments “With a bullish message coming from the new market and plenty of confidence being displayed by dealers, you would expect the used market to remain strong and you won’t be disappointed. The LCV market continues to outperform the car market and most other areas of the economy! However, there are some signs that prices are beginning to soften as the summer months approach and it will be interesting to see if this trend continues into June.”

With fleet & lease vans averaging £3,915 in Quarter 1, values in both April and May outstripped even that record figure at £4,057 and £3,984 respectively. However, looking at the monthly figures in a little more detail shows values declining from a peak in March (at £4,148). Performance against guide was also lower in May than any other month this year. While age has remained relatively static at around 4 years, mileage has crept up over the months and is now over 5,500 miles higher than in January.

While LCV stock is almost universally diesel-powered, small numbers of petrol/LPG units are available to the used market from fleet/lease sources. First quarter values averaged just under £2,775. April saw values rocket upwards by over £1,200 – largely due to the average age coming down sharply (LPG vans in April were 10 months younger than in March). May saw values fall back sharply as average age rose by over a year, but mileage decreased by 20,000. Volumes in this sector remain small and this will tend to lead to such swings in price.

Turning to Part-Exchange vehicles, values have noticeably stepped up in 2007. Average values in the first quarter of the year rose to record levels, improving on the previous quarter by £263 to £3,244. Both age and mileage averages fell noticeably (by three months and 6,000 miles respectively) while CAP performance improved marginally to sit at 99.3%. Year on year, CAP performance for P/X LCVs in Quarter 1 improved by 9 points.

Tracking the monthly values shows that PX values have continued to increase and are around £500 ahead in May of where they were in January. However, some of the May value increase must be attributed to the reduction in average age – down by four months on April – and a similarly noticeable fall in average mileage by over 7,500 on the previous month.

The few late-plate, low mileage vans that reach auction are highly prized by buyers. Competition leads to a huge average price differential over the fleet/lease or P/X sourced vehicle – with nearly new values averaging up to three times the typical corporate entered four-year-old van.

Nearly-new values climbed in February, but were hit hard by the new plate in March, dropping back by nearly £1,000. Values rallied strongly in April and May and now sit around £10,725. It is worth remembering that volumes are relatively low in this sector and model mix at BCA will influence average values.

A look at the price trends across the three sectors going back to the start of the fourth quarter last year is inconclusive so far in terms of a softening of prices, but does highlight the relative stability of the fleet/lease and PX markets in comparison to the nearly new.