Brokers expect increase in FTB and home mover business

Brokers expect to handle slightly more business for first time buyers and home movers over the next two months - the first time they have forecasted positive growth since the question was first asked 18 months ago in the IMLA survey of mortgage intermediaries.

While growth levels (in terms of numbers of loans) remain very modest, with activity for first time buyers up on average by 0.9% and for home movers up 0.7%, this may reflect a turning point as intermediaries start to see a symbolically important return of confidence and activity to the market.

Since summer 2007, brokers' projections for first time buyer and home mover business have been consistently downbeat, with a low point in May last year when they expected business from first time buyers to decline by almost 5% and from home movers by over 3%. Not surprisingly, expectations regarding remortgaging were relatively more positive, but even that has been consistently in negative territory since last May. Now remortgaging is predicted to decline more slowly by 0.4% and buy-to-let cases by 0.7%.
Actual numbers of mortgages handled by respondents have declined significantly since late 2006, when they peaked at an average of 20 loans per office. Since summer 2008, the fall has been precipitous, dwindling from 16 in July to 10 now in line with the contraction of the mortgage funding market. Now that has stabilised intermediaries are signalling a little more optimism.

In terms of status type, intermediaries expect to see growth of 0.3% in standard prime loans, while sub-prime, self-cert and other types are predicted to decline.

Peter Williams, IMLA's executive director, said: "We are not out of the woods yet but there are early tentative signs that the market is starting to return - at least from intermediaries' perspective. For the first time in 18 months, brokers expect first time buyer and home mover activity to rise slightly, on the back of renewed interest in the housing market. While the level of growth is small, at less than 1%, this is an important signal that confidence is beginning to pick up. There is a modest improvement in mortgage availability and estate agents are starting to report a rise in property sales. Further work still needs to be done to improve availability of mortgages in the sector, however, for example by way of government initiatives to support specialist lenders and the full spectrum of building societies."