Diesel registrations hit record high in November 2007

New car registrations once again bettered expectations, with volumes up 2.2 per cent compared to this time last year and saw the eighth monthly growth of 2007, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). However, they are still a long way from 2004 levels.

Over the last three and six months, the market was up 3.0 and 2.8 per cent respectively in 2007. Growth momentum is in line with stronger and sustained growth currently in consumer spending, as well as sales activity by manufacturers. However, concerns remain how the market will fare in 2008.

Market set to surpass 2.4mn units in 2007

December typically accounts for less than six per cent of annual volumes. The market last year was 133,810 units but since 1999 has averaged closer to 140,000 units.

The 12 month rolling total has climbed to 2.4mn units, which is still a long way below the record annual registration total of 2.579mn, set in 2003. However, it does represent a sizeable improvement since the start of the year when we had originally forecast the 2007 market would slip to 2.315mn units.

Growth maintained across all sales types

All sales type categories look set to show growth in 2007. In November the private and fleet sectors showed similar percentage rises.

The growth in private demand continues to be a welcome surprise. Sales in diesel and alternatively fuelled vehicles continue to grow, up 10.2 and 68.2 per cent respectively. Concerns remain about the sustainability of sales growth in light of the global credit crunch and cost pressures on consumers and business alike.

Focus top, whilst MINI moves up rankings

The Ford Focus returned to the top of the best sellers list in November, a position it also holds over the year-to-date.

MINI volumes doubled in the month and it took eighth place in the best sellers list. Superminis, like the MINI, recorded a 2.8 per cent growth over the year-to-date.

Audi, BMW, MINI and Nissan recorded impressive gains in November. Over the year-to-date Audi, BMW, MINI and Vauxhall have seen the strongest growth – a reflection of the popularity of new products.

Diesel penetration hits record high

Diesel-powered cars took a 45.3 per cent share of the November market, bettering the 45 per cent rate of December 2005, when sales were boosted by regulatory tax changes. The recent growth follows consumers attempting to lower their CO2 emissions and improve the efficiency of their vehicles at a time when fuel costs have risen significantly.

Diesel volumes look set to grow by eight per cent and penetration to pass 40 per cent in 2007.

Economic analysis

Data from Oxford Economics (Autumn 2007) suggests that consumer spending has been fuelled by increased debts. A key concern to economic growth in 2008, and in turn new car demand, is whether such spending can be sustained. House prices are set to show no growth by the end of 2008 and, coupled with rising cost pressures on consumers with limited earnings growth potential, taking some confidence away. A higher debt to incomes ratio will make consumers more vulnerable to any shocks to the system, like the financial sector credit crunch.

'2007 has seen the new car market recover slightly, but we are still a long way from the records set in 2003,' said Christopher Macgowan, SMMT chief executive. 'It is really encouraging to see the growth in diesel registrations, and this is expected to exceed 40 per cent of the total market by the end of 2007. New diesel engines are around 20 per cent more fuel-efficient than a petrol equivalent – good news for the motorist at times of rising fuel costs, and it also means a similar saving on CO2 emissions – good news for the environment too.'