Clear case for scrappage incentives

cleangreencars.co.uk has calculated that a carefully-targeted scrappage incentive for car owners can boost the economy without harming the environment – in fact, there will be a long-term reduction in CO2.

The economic benefits are clear: a German government scheme to offer €2500 per car (usually matched as an incentive by car manufacturers offering the same amount again) to trade-in old cars has led to the German car market growing by 21.5% in February 2009, and is expected to lead to 600,000 extra sales this year.

But how can hundreds of thousands of cars hit the road without damaging the environment? If the scrappage incentive was only available for cars emitting under 130g/km of CO2 (the EU target for 2012) and used to scrap cars which are at least 10 years old, the saving in CO2 would more than balance the extra CO2 used in the manufacture of the cars. The calculation is as follows:

Average CO2 of a new car in 1998: 188g/km (source SMMT)

Assume a scrappage incentive only for cars that emit under 130 g/km of CO2

Result: a minimum saving: 58 g/km of CO2 per car

Then assume average mileage of 13,000 km per year (source Department of Transport)

Result: a saving of 754 kg per car per year - or 7.5 tonnes over a 10 year life.

Extra CO2 produced during manufacture is complex to calculate, but a paper prepared by Ford and independently certified as being compliant with ISO 14040 (the international Life Cycle Assessment standard), calculated that:

For petrol cars, manufacturing CO2 equals 20% of CO2 emissions during lifetime use. Lifetime emissions for a car emitting 130 g/km of CO2 (assuming a life of 95,000 miles) is 20 tonnes.


For diesel cars, manufacturing CO2 equals 25% of CO2 emissions during lifetime use (a diesel emits less CO2, but needs more CO2 to build as its engine is more complex and heavier).

Hence, the CO2 emissions during the manufacturing phase would be approximately 4 tonnes for a small petrol car and 4.5 tonnes for a small diesel.

Thus, while there would be short-term spike in CO2 output, within six years the additional low-emission cars would provide a net benefit to the environment.

Jay Nagley, Publisher of Clean Green Cars, commented, " There are not many ways of boosting production without harming the environment, but this is one. We do not believe the argument that says we must save the planet by reducing economic activity - no one will willingly lose their job to save the environment. We need to find ways to grow the economy and help the environment at the same time. One thing is for sure: an economic depression will simply make people forget environmental issues and that is in no-one's interest."