Golf and Fiesta storm ahead in race for sales recovery

A handful of key models remain the driving force behind a fragile European new car market recovery, according to the latest monthly analysis from JATO Dynamics, the world’s leading provider of automotive data and intelligence.

Boosted by their popularity in national scrappage schemes, the market-leading Volkswagen Golf, Ford Fiesta, Fiat Punto, Fiat Panda and Renault Mégane are the only best-sellers to increase their sales, YtD.

This is maintaining a tentative recovery, with the European new car market up 7.5% in September, and the YtD deficit reduced to 5.7%.

The Golf sold 59,552 new vehicles in September which represents a 56% increase over the same period last year, providing good news for the German carmaker, whose Polo and Passat models fared less well in the month and are down YtD by 3.3% and 15.8% respectively.

Ford is keeping up the pressure, selling 51,291 new Fiestas in September, 63.9% more than a year ago and over 12,000 more new registrations than the third-placed Opel/ Vauxhall Corsa.

Fiat enjoyed another buoyant sales period, with both its Punto and Panda featuring in the top ten models with the Punto recording a 66.2% rise in sales for the month. Renault’s new Mégane rounds off the top ten, giving the French manufacturer the accolade of the highest percentage sales increase in the month with a rise of 90.4%.

However, David Di Girolamo, Head of JATO Consult, remains unconvinced that these performances are sustainable: “We are still seeing the market recovery driven by small cars and new models – in other words, the popular choices in national scrappage schemes. This has clearly distorted the natural performance of some markets and models. Now the end is in sight for these incentives, we will be watching the market closely, to see if this recovery is sustainable,” he says.

Volkswagen remains Europe’s top-selling car brand. Its seemingly healthy 3.7% YtD sales rise almost solely thanks to the performance of Golf, especially in its home market of Germany, where sales increased considerably for September. The remaining brands reveal the true extent of the downturn, with many still unable to match their 2008 YtD figures.

The parlous state of most of the European automotive markets continued in September, with the majority still posting sales losses. Markets across Eastern Europe in particular are suffering with significant contractions in new car sales, the consequence of stricter loan policies introduced by financial institutions, recent VAT increases and a lack of Western-European-style scrappage schemes.

In contrast, the effect of Germany’s comprehensive scrappage incentive can be seen in its YtD performance, while the extension of the British scheme is expected to support UK national sales into 2010.