Weaker demand and increased supply hits house prices
Demand as measured by new buyer enquiries fell for only the second time since the latter part of 2008 while the net balance for new instructions rose to the highest level for three years impacting on sentiment for future price rises, says latest RICS UK Housing Market survey.
Ten percent more chartered surveyors reported a rise than a fall in house prices down from 22 percent in May. Surveyors are still reporting house price rises in most parts of the country but the increase in supply is pushing many of the regional net balances towards negative territory. The most notable exceptions to this trend are London and Scotland.
Buyer interest fell for only the second time since October 2008 reflecting in part heightened uncertainty over the near term outlook for the economy. Five percent more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise in new buyer enquires down from a positive eight percent in May. This contrasts with a sustained rise in supply. The net balance of surveyors reporting rises in new instructions has remained in positive territory for 13 successive months. 27 percent more chartered surveyors reported a rise than fall in new instructions, up from 22 percent in May and the highest reading since May 2007 when the net balance was 44 percent. This latest increase in instructions is partly a response to the recent decision to abolish HIPs in England and Wales.
The increase is supply has started to impact on surveyor sentiment towards house prices over the coming months. Four percent more chartered surveyors expect prices to fall which is down from a positive reading of four percent last month.
More positively, the larger number of properties coming to the market should help bolster activity which has been depressed partly because of a lack of choice for home buyers. Sales are expected to rise over the coming months with the net balance remaining firmly in positive territory at 19 percent. During June, the average number of completed sales remained static but the average number of stocks on surveyor's books rose by five to 67.
Commenting, RICS spokesperson, Jeremy Leaf said: "A shortage of stock has been one factor holding back transaction activity in the housing market but the abolition of HIPS is helping to belatedly address this issue. This is likely to be reflected in higher sales numbers over the coming months. However, with supply of property now beginning to outstrip demand there is a risk of some modest slippage in prices during the second half of the year."