European commercial property loses ground on rest of the world

Commercial property markets in Europe struggled to keep pace with other parts of the world, as the effects of the global financial crisis continued to impact on investment and occupier markets, says the RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q4 2011.

Rental predictions were in negative territory across much of Europe with the noticeable exception of Germany. The prospect of an extended period of minimal growth, if not a retreat back into outright recession, is clearly weighing heavily on the sector in the wake of the ongoing turmoil relating to the sovereign debt crisis.

However, rental expectations remain positive in eight of the countries surveyed, with respondents in China, Brazil, Russia and Canada amongst those predicting rises rather than falls in future rental values. In each of these markets fresh demand for space continues to outstrip new supply which reflects the relative resilience being displayed by these economies.

On the investment side, it is the same four countries (China, Brazil, Russia and Canada) where expectations for capital values are strongest. Meanwhile, across much of Europe sentiment is particularly downbeat. Interestingly, the revival in transaction activity in the US is expected to persist, despite on-going concerns about the outlook for the economy; indeed, surveyors in the United States reported the strongest reading regarding the outlook for future sales.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, commented: "It is no surprise that the fourth quarter results are a little bit gloomier, given the economic news during the period. However, real estate in some parts of the world continues to provide significant opportunities. In particular, sentiment remains generally upbeat in many of the faster growing economies even if they are likely to grow a little more slowly in the coming year.

"Moreover, the survey also highlights the difference in the developed world between those countries that largely shunned the sub-prime credit boom such as Canada and Germany and those that participated in it.''