Commercial vehicle sector prepares for impending slowdown
The light commercial vehicle sector has held up well over previous months but there are clear signs indicating that, as the summer months approach, it is running out of steam, according to the experts behind Glass’s Guide to Commercial Vehicle Values.
Sales activity at auction indicates that it is the poorly maintained and average examples of light vans that often struggle to find a taker.
Talk of an economic slowdown has triggered reports that the heavyweight sector may also be susceptible to a decline despite remaining buoyant up until this point, explains George Alexander, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor at EurotaxGlass’s.
“For dealers, it is a case of so far, so good, but tread carefully,” advises Alexander. “With lead times currently stretching well into 2009 for most new chassis, and truck registrations in 2008 up by nearly 40 per cent, it appears that the seemingly impossible may be set to occur, with new and used heavy truck sales maintaining a good part of their previous sales momentum throughout the remainder of the year.
“Whilst it would be too optimistic to imagine that sales of used chassis will not be affected by wider economic problems, it is reasonable to suggest that, with severe shortages of desirable Euro III vehicles, prices will, for the most part, hold up.”
New commercial vehicle registration figures give out a very positive message, representing a game of ‘catch-up’ due to extended lead times. However, Alexander also warns that a careful stance should be adopted in case of a slowdown in this area of the market also. “It is worth noting that a period of high sales of new commercial vehicles does not guarantee stable trading conditions ahead.”
Used lightweights
Late year Vauxhall Corsavans in clean condition strike the right chord with used buyers, but Fiat’s Punto receives very mixed sentiment, with only those vans in A1 condition with low warranted miles reaching Guide Trade.
Ford’s Fiesta has a loyal following, though it is now experiencing some price weakness as volumes from national fleets grow.
The tidiest Citroen Berlingos, Renault Kangoos and Peugeot Partners move quickly off dealer forecourts at prices peppering Guide and, at auction, it is invariably volume, condition and mileage that will dictate the end result. With plenty of ex-utility examples currently becoming available, it is only the fresher looking, low mileage examples that will find homes easily.
Recently at auction, clean and tidy Ford Couriers, sporting mileage that was lower than average, sold for prices in excess of Guide Trade.
Higher-powered Vauxhall Combos are currently performing well, following a sustained period when buyers had simply been offered too many vans with the wrong credentials. With the price of diesel increasing on a near daily basis, it has become noticeable that some petrol-engined vans have performed better, or perhaps it is closer to the truth to simply say that they are doing less badly.
A continuing run of good form for Vauxhall’s Astravan meant that prices remained stable over the month, with manageable numbers helping to generate positive sentiment, especially for the Sportive SE models.
Early year Vauxhall Astra Sportive currently head the field in the used sector and regularly command all of Guide at auction, whilst LS and Envoy vans, seen in far greater numbers, must rely more on good presentation to attract decent money.
Recently, a selection of Astra Envoys powered by both DTi and CDTi engine technology, offered in clean condition, received plenty of attention from the trade buyers and sold at prices in excess of Guide Trade values.
New shape Astras are now starting to appear on the open market with those offered in metallic colours performing strongly.
To achieve best results, Ford’s versatile Connect must be equipped with a side-loading door and ply-lined. In recent weeks, and although readily available at auction, T200 and T230 Connects with reasonably low mileage have been achieving Guide Trade. However, the same cannot be said of the T220 75PS LWB model, which often struggles to attract much trade interest.
For Volkswagen’s Caddy, debate centres on whether the SDi or Tdi is best suited to the task in hand. Accordingly, both of these C20 models perform strongly on the open market, with those offered with side loading doors consistently achieving Guide Trade. The same is true for those rare examples of previous generation Caddy making an appearance at auction.
Used heavyweights
Currently, there are few indications at the larger auction sites to suggest that demand is about to fall off sharply, yet over the traditionally slower summer months, prices will slip.
Some sites are bursting at the seams with stock, yet buyers are still paying good money to secure nice trucks and trailers. However, not everything sells outright, a growing number of lots go ‘provisionally’, with further negotiation being needed to close the deal.
The lead-time situation surrounding all new commercial vehicles, but particularly affecting the best tractor units and anything special, may be set to ease slightly over the coming weeks, but you wouldn’t easily sense this at auction as late-year tractor units continue to excel. Pleasingly, this demand filters down to slightly older vehicles where sometimes almost extortionate money is paid to secure ownership of popular tractor units, and is especially apparent when dealers and owner/operators lock horns.
Increasing price differentials separate one to three year olds from four and five year old vehicles with the ‘cash-gap’ to older vehicles growing ever larger.
Occasionally, bucking that trend are low-powered urban tractor units, which can exceed expectation if a buyer is intending to turn them into high-powered rigids or, simply, if they are required as a low cost option for short-run stop/start work.